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John Pfaff

johnpfaff.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I&#x27;m not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at <a href="http://johnfpfaff.com">johnfpfaff.com</a>.<br><br>🌉 <a href="https://fed.brid.gy/bsky/johnpfaff.bsky.social">bridged</a> from 🦋 <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/johnpfaff.bsky.social">johnpfaff.bsky.social</a>, follow <a class="h-card u-author mention" rel="me" href="https://bsky.brid.gy/bsky.brid.gy" title="@bsky.brid.gy@bsky.brid.gy">@bsky.brid.gy</a> to interact

Posts

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    In my latest on @ms.now@bsky.brid.gy, I do a little math to show just how hard to impossible it would be for Trump to effectively deploy Fed cops to mess w polling sites, even if he just targeted battleground races. Breathless coverage of those threats does his work for him, by needlessly stoking fear. Opinion | Don’t let Trump spar...

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    Look, this is bad. Yes. But the Trump admin sent six (6) people to Maricopa and Pima. Where, by my count, there are 404 polling places, spread across 18,000 square miles (each county is ~9k sq mi). What they want is the FEAR to discourage the voting they can&#39;t actually prevent. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:bam3rkdzsg74tx5ddflbgils/post/3mxa7oeigwp2g

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    Does each president get an Air Force One as a parting gift? RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:6m7rbdgaz5vyg4bnbefi7kh6/post/3mseixvcd5s2p

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    OMFG, this. For any liberal or progressive cause, over and over. Boudin’s recall was a National Defeat, while Krasner’s victory was a quirky local interest story and Foxx’s reelection in 2020 got zero national coverage at all. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/post/3ms7xenq5tc24

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    We need to create a buddy system. Every DC pol, every staffer, every pollster, and every Terminally On-Line Political Poaster (professional and amateur alike) needs to get paired w a Political Normie who does not live in DC, NYC, or LA. The political equivalent of touching grass. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:hafxlnw235qrcil2lpohp2ly/post/3ms7z323czc2s

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    This must be wild disinformation, bc my sense from too many posts on here is that the Dems have a two-chamber supermajority trifecta. (Don’t get me wrong, I think it‘s time for an angrier, more aggressive younger gen to lead the Dems. But also, ppl need to stop Green Lanterning the minority party.) RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:jb2q4yqmgpmefxd4xx66gepm/post/3ms4zpfhcwk2m

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    Also, just guessing here, but bet in many of these cases the ppl who need aid are in GOP parts of blue states. So he’s killing his OWN CONSTITUENTS (albeit ones who may not “matter,” electorally, bc of the execrable Electoral College). That 2000 Election map broke a lot of brains. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:wgfz5e3rv4mxgtcpypddfruu/post/3mrulonsrgs2w

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    It’s like … well … it’s like owning a casino in Atlantic City, and then opening a second one in Atlantic City, and thinking both will be profitable, not that one will just cannibalize the fixed number of gamblers coming to Atlantic City. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:kjjhbsc3pp3vkqjsivk6z2yd/post/3mrsyqokif22o

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    NYT v Sullivan breaks in favor of NYT over Sullivan, yet again. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/post/3mrdiohd4nc2x

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    My latest, @ms.now@bsky.brid.gy, on ICE agent Brouillette, the murder of Durán Guerrero in Maine, and the breakdown in vetting at ICE. In any context, bad vetting is bad. But for ICE, it is likely DISTINCTLY bad, bc recruiting challenges means it is likely attracting those unqualified for regular police jobs. Opinion | The latest ICE shoot...

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    Cry for me Argentina! Waving Spain Flag

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    What are the best book/books/articles about the history of punishment in the US? Looking for something that covers the Colonial Era to as close to today as possible, though don&#39;t need it to get to the present-present. Want something to assign to students to give them a broad historical view.

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    Here&#39;s what I don&#39;t get, assuming this screw-up came from using Westlaw&#39;s or Lexis&#39;s AI: Why can&#39;t these companies create two systems: the probabilistic generative AI that takes a stab at things, and a deterministic fact-checker that sees if quotes and page numbers line up? RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:euynv325eix7glyek377orak/post/3mqrxicciu22j

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    This is promising. And it is, again, a reminder of how important local DA elections are. Houston and Minneapolis voted for reformers, Chicago and LA voted theirs out. There&#39;s a reason Tende is reaching out to Minneapolis, not Chicago or LA. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:tsveacqzpqosfuahoqgsfu4a/post/3mqaal6xezs2q

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    SCOTUS, 2032 (absent expansion, jurisdiction-stripping, and relocating them to a strip mall in Kansas): &quot;Yes, the defn used the n-word, said &#39;I hate you bc of your skin color,&#39; and was wearing a shirt that said &#39;white prid [sic] forever.&#39; But ppl are complex, who are we to say what&#39;s in his heart?&quot; RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:53n54gjixfukqx56qyjnxmkn/post/3mqex6doj5s2s

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    My latest @ms.now@bsky.brid.gy, on ICE’s killing of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Houston, and on the striking degree to which the media has refused to just accept ICE’s narrative of things. The extent to which the NYT, WaPo, et al keep stressing ICE has no evidence of its claims seems like a real narrative shift. Opinion | ICE deserves skeptic...

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    Harper&#39;s Letter Writers? Harper&#39;s Letter Writers? RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:x7srox3it3f7oynvzjbfeq4e/post/3mq2tqhhlhg2p Ben Stein&#39;s &#39;Anyone? Anyone?&#39; ...

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    A generation of vapid nightly news commentators desperately filling airtime by saying “the gap is narrowing!” and thus turning the tedious process of counting votes into a fake sport has brought us to the martyrdom of Spencer Pratt. Yet another—but big—way the media has failed us. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:lzlqyldh7nfc34pfffvd24ko/post/3mpgqooweok23

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    If the Dems win both the House and the Senate in 2026, they won&#39;t be able to expand SCOTUS (filibuster + veto). But couldn&#39;t they cripple it? Set the clerkship budget to $0. Set the ops budget so low it can only have a handful of hearings. Effectively shut down SCOTUS the way they did DHS this yr.

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    I&#39;m begging for one article--just one--that is &quot;Trump says Iran war is worth the economic pain. These urban voters in Harlem say `We told you he&#39;d screw everything up, why didn&#39;t you listen to us?&#39;&quot; Just one. Just one &quot;diner&quot; interview in a place w a density above 1 per 1000 sq mi and &lt; 95% white. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:jbvnehrrdqoulco4rf5gxg5r/post/3mlxmz5wske2v

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    My lone election post is this: To beg, beg, BEG journos to remember that as soon as a state’s polls close, it has MADE its choice. There is no “closing the gap,” or “gaining ground.” That sort of horserace framing plays DIRECTLY into Trump’s conspiracy-addled hands. Do. Not. Do. That!

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    The same people who are cancelling mRNA research, rolling back vaccine mandates (even for the military, where using them is an Originalist position), defunding cancer research. It DOES make sense, if you accept that they&#39;re eugenicists w a vile &quot;survival of the fittest&quot; worldview. Trump administration ends fund...

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    There was ONE ATC in the tower at LGA during last night&#39;s crash. ONE ATC, at LGA!, dealing w ALL air and ground traffic, including a plane filling w a strange smell and no gate to return to. The Pentagon wants $200B for a vanity war, but our ATC towers are empty. Budgets are moral documents.

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    Any AUSAs who agree to take on this case, any AUSAs who oversee them, and any USA/DAG who chooses to lead them should never find employment as lawyers again. (Except obv the oligarchs will find sinecures for some--but not all--of them. Accountability and billionaires are too often incompatible.) RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:73t3muu2pudsajp7a2fj3aly/post/3mjzz2mxyi225

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    For those who may still wonder why some of us insist on calling it the “criminal LEGAL system,” not “justice.” DAs pressure a man to plead guilty to a rape they already KNEW HE DID NOT COMMIT, withholding the DNA they KNEW exonerated him. 13 YEARS in prison. My GOD.

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    Outstanding to see @hennepin.bsky.social file charges against two ICE officers. This is for a gun-pointing road rage incident, not the killings of either Good or Pretti, but this is also a case where supremacy clause immunity is much harder to invoke. It&#39;s a really good start. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3mjmvetnq3k2i