Why are forecasters confident that El Niño is on its way? Especially when looking at SSTs and they seem underwhelming?
We need to look deeper into the ocean.
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At @ECMWF@fediscience.org we have routine monitoring plots of the (old) ocean analysis system #ORAS5*.
These are designed by my office mate and ocean expert Eric de Boisseson.
I asked him about El Niño and he immediately pulled up not maps, but vertical cross sections along the equator.
Plots are openly available here:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/oras5/products/oras5_xzmaps_1m?AnomalyMode=Anomaly&Field=Temperature
When you look at things this way, the expectation that we will soon get a surface heat anomaly in the eastern Pacific doesn't need much more explanation.
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*The new system, #ORAS6, is in place but publishing the equivalent plots is not yet there.
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This #WorldOceansDay, marine protected areas have officially surpassed the 10% mark globally.
To reach the UN goal of protecting 30% of the oceans by 2030, another 20% must be secured over the next 4 years.
Experts warn many sites remain "paper parks" that still allow destructive bottom trawling. https://mongabay.cc/zkrxPV
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Friendly reminder that the ocean isn't lost yet - and the communities who've been protecting it for generations are still fighting for it. This #WorldOceansDay, their stories deserve to be heard 👇 https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/83982/5-reasons-need-thriving-coastal-communities-protect-oceans/
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